Obama, Facebook and the power of friendship: the data election | US news | The Guardian
Voter turnout in U.S. presidential elections in stood at percent. This statistic presents the voter turnout in the U.S. presidential elections from to . Show sources information: Show publisher information; Release date .. media features, and analyze access to our website. In your browser settings you. ←; ; → · v · t · e · George W. Bush, the incumbent president in , whose term expired on January 20, The United States presidential election of was the 56th quadrennial presidential election. .. In the third quarter of , the top four GOP (Republican) fundraisers were Romney, Giuliani. Relevance, Date Political rumoring on Twitter during the US presidential election: Rumor diffusion and correction While in general rumors resisted debunking by professional fact-checking sites (e.g. Snopes), this was less .. Available at: homework-help.us the-.
Obama would run his final race not as an insurgent against a party establishment, but as the establishment itself. Their demands, not the offerings of consultants and vendors, would shape the marketplace. The committee installed a Siemens Enterprise System phone-dialing unit that could put out 1. The chastening losses they had experienced in Washington separated them from those who had known only the ecstasies of At the same time, they knew they would need to succeed at registering and mobilizing new voters, especially in some of the fastest-growing demographic categories, to make up for any voters who did defect.
But within the campaign, the goal was literal. They would reassemble the coalition, one by one, through personal contacts. This reflected a principled imperative to challenge the political establishment with an empirical approach to electioneering, and it was greatly influenced by David Plouffe, the campaign manager, who loved metrics, spreadsheets, and performance reports.
Plouffe wanted to know: How much money did that ad campaign bring in? But for all its reliance on data, the Obama campaign had remained insulated from the most important methodological innovation in 21st-century politics. InYale professors Don Green and Alan Gerber conducted the first randomized controlled trial in modern political science, assigning New Haven voters to receive nonpartisan election reminders by mail, phone, or in-person visit from a canvasser and measuring which group saw the greatest increase in turnout.
The subsequent wave of field experiments by Green, Gerber, and their followers focused on mobilization, testing competing modes of contact and get-out-the-vote language to see which were most successful. The first Obama campaign used the findings of such tests to tweak call scripts and canvassing protocols, but it never fully embraced the experimental revolution itself. The breakthrough was that registration no longer had to be approached passively; organizers did not have to simply wait for the unenrolled to emerge from anonymity, sign a form, and, they hoped, vote.
New techniques made it possible to intelligently profile nonvoters: Applying microtargeting models identified which nonregistrants were most likely to be Democrats and which ones Republicans.
• U.S. voter turnout on presidential elections since | Statista
The Obama campaign embedded social scientists from the Analyst Institute among its staff. Party officials knew that adding new Democratic voters to the registration rolls was a crucial element in their strategy for It wanted to take on the most vexing problem in politics: The expansion of individual-level data had made possible the kind of testing that could help do that.
Experimenters had typically calculated the average effect of their interventions across the entire population. When the group sent direct mail in favor of Democratic gubernatorial candidates, it barely budged those whose scores placed them in the middle of the partisan spectrum; it had a far greater impact upon those who had been profiled as soft or nonideological Republicans.
That test, and others that followed, demonstrated the limitations of traditional targeting.
Such techniques rested on a series of long-standing assumptions—for instance, that middle-of-the-roaders were the most persuadable and that infrequent voters were the likeliest to be captured in a get-out-the-vote drive. But the experiments introduced new uncertainty.
How Obama’s Team Used Big Data to Rally Voters - MIT Technology Review
People who were identified as having a 50 percent likelihood of voting for a Democrat might in fact be torn between the two parties, or they might look like centrists only because no data attached to their records pushed a partisan prediction in one direction or another. The traditional way of doing this had been to audition themes and language in focus groups and then test the winning material in polls to see which categories of voters responded positively to each approach.
Any insights were distorted by the artificial settings and by the tiny samples of demographic subgroups in traditional polls. And people have been doing that for decades! Experimenters would randomly assign voters to receive varied sequences of direct mail—four pieces on the same policy theme, each making a slightly different case for Obama—and then use ongoing survey calls to isolate the attributes of those whose opinions changed as a result.Top Free Christian Dating Sites - Free Christians Personals & Apps
The experiment revealed how much voter response differed by age, especially among women. Older women thought more highly of the policies when they received reminders about preventive care; younger women liked them more when they were told about contraceptive coverage and new rules that prohibited insurance companies from charging women more. The results were surprising. Those scores suggested that they probably shared Republican attitudes; but here was one thing that could pull them to Obama.
Traditionally, campaigns have restricted their persuasion efforts to channels like mass media or direct mail, where they can control presentation, language, and targeting. Sending volunteers to persuade voters would mean forcing them to interact with opponents, or with voters who were undecided because they were alienated from politics on delicate issues like abortion.
They began sending trained volunteers to knock on doors or make phone calls with the objective of changing minds. That dramatic shift in the culture of electioneering was felt on the streets, but it was possible only because of advances in analytics.
Likely Obama supporters would get regular reminders from their local field organizers, asking them to return their ballots, and, once they had, a message thanking them and proposing other ways to be involved in the campaign. The local organizer would receive daily lists of the voters on his or her turf who had outstanding ballots so that the campaign could follow up with personal contact by phone or at the doorstep. Wagner, however, was turning his attention beyond the field.
Throughout the primaries, Romney had appeared to be the only Republican running a 21st-century campaign, methodically banking early votes in states like Florida and Ohio before his disorganized opponents could establish operations there.
Such techniques had offered George W. ByDemocrats had not only matched Republicans in adopting commercial marketing techniques; they had moved ahead by integrating methods developed in the social sciences. That was the structure Obama had abandoned after winning the nomination in Michele Bachmann participating, and Gary Johnson excluded.
A total of thirteen debates were held before the Iowa caucuses. The first major event of the campaign was the Ames Straw Pollwhich took place in Iowa on August 13, Michele Bachmann won the straw poll this ultimately proved to be the acme of her campaign. As a result, a number of potential "anti-Romney" candidates were put forward,   including future President Donald Trump Sarah Palin Chris Christie and Texas Governor Rick Perry the last of whom decided to run in August Perry did poorly in the debates, however, and Herman Cain and then Newt Gingrich came into the fore in October and November.
The Obama database incorporates Vote Builder, a store of essential information such as age, postal address, occupation and voting history drawn from the voter files of million active voters.
It lines up and matches those voter files with data gathered from online interactions with the president's supporters — notably the millions of pieces of information its army of canvassers collected across the nation during the race, a list of email addresses of supporters that it has amassed and that now stands at about 23 million, as well as the contact information of Obama's 25 million Facebook fans.
Facebook itself has been transformed as a political campaign tool sincesimply by dint of its exponential growth. Four years ago there were about 40 million Facebook users in the US; now there are more than million — incorporating almost the entire voting public. The significance of the fusion of Facebook and voter file data is hard to overemphasise. The messages can be honed to a particular demographic — age, gender, etc — as well as set of interests, and targeted on the most hotly contested parts of the most crucial battleground states.
Teddy Goff, the digital director of the re-election team, told Social Media Week that as the year progresses there would be more and more "persuasion through interaction". Individual voters would be given access to digital platforms from which they will be able to tell their own stories "and that's far more powerful than anything we can say", Goff said.
People's own stories really moves votes. An Obama message would be crafted so that "not only can it be passed to your friends but to those friends that we think are most in need of passing it on to".
2016 United States presidential election
The bottom line is that if you are sent a message from your Facebook friend encouraging you to turn up to an event or donate to Obama, you are vastly more likely to respond than if the request comes from an anonymous campaign staffer. The other door that data integration will further open in is personalised marketing. This has been the Holy Grail of political campaigners for decades: In the old world of snail mail, that could be achieved to some degree through direct marketing — ie leaflets dropped into the letter box — but that is expensive and far too slow with today's hour news cycle.
The fusion of information into a centralised database allows you to direct market online at much less cost and virtually instantaneously. The technique has begun to spread widely among commercial businesses over the past year, and it is only a matter of time before such hyper-targeting is standard across political campaigns.
Indeed, we've already started to see it this year.
2012 United States presidential election
The Obama campaign has already tailored a single donation request to 26 distinct segments of the voting public. The Republicans are also getting in on the act.
Michele Bachmann used customised online advertising in Iowa to reach Republican voters only, sending to their computers messages with a local spin for each of the state's 99 counties. That helped her win Iowa's vaunted straw poll in August though that didn't help her in the long run. Rick Perry sent God-praising commercials to Iowans who listed themselves as evangelicals on Facebook.
The company CampaignGridthat serves mainly Republican candidates, claims to be able to online market direct to targeted households. Jeff Dittus, the company's co-founder, illustrates what this means.